Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/1/08)

September closes with a lot of red on the map, but unfortunately for John McCain none of that red comes in any state that isn't already favoring him in FHQ's weighted averages. And the blue comes places the Arizona senator absolutely cannot yield. But that's pretty much par for the course for the Republican's 2008 standard bearer over the last couple of weeks. So while seven of the eleven polls released today favored McCain, they did little more than stanch the flow of blood. No, I don't think McCain is necessarily out of it, but as we have discussed here over the last few days, it is becoming harder and harder to come up with scenarios where he pulls this thing out on November 4.

New Polls (Sept. 30)
StatePollMargin
Arizona
Rasmussen
+21
Florida
Public Policy Polling
+3
Georgia
Survey USA
+8
Indiana
Survey USA
+3
Nevada
ARG
+2
North Carolina
ARG
+3
Ohio
Survey USA
+1
Ohio
Insider Advantage
+2
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg
+8
Virginia
ARG
+3
Virginia
Insider Advantage
+6

With that said, McCain seems to have wrapped up his home state of Arizona; not that it was ever really in doubt. There was a stretch over the summer where there were a series of upper single digit polls from the Grand Canyon state, but that was never meant to be. But that wasn't really where the news of the day came from. In the crucial states of Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, McCain received some well needed polling, sweeping the four polls but with margins still within the margin of error. The bad news is that Florida continues to tighten and Pennsylvania keeps slipping away. McCain cannot, in most cases, lose Florida and still win. There are scenarios out there, but their likelihood is near zero at this point -- especially with Michigan and Pennsylvania moving toward Obama. And though, the Arizona senator can win by keeping the red states and winning Colorado, adding Pennsylvania sure would be helpful to him. But if Muhlenberg keeps churning out 7 and 8 point margins in their daily tracking poll of the Keystone state, that just isn't going to happen.

[Obviously, those tracking polls are something we should address. This is similar to the situation over the summer when Rasmussen was the overwhelming leader in providing polling information. The question then was, what if there is some bias in those polls? It would throw everything off. Well, Pennsylvania is in a similar situation now with these Muhlenberg polls beginning to pile up. Those polls seem to be in line with other emerging from Pennsylvania at the moment, though. As long as there are other polls echoing the Muhlenberg results it isn't a problem. If those polls start to diverge from the other polling in the state though, FHQ may have to revisit the decision to include them. We try for some modicum of transparency around here, so I'll keep you posted on that development.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The worst news for McCain is from Virginia, though.* Yes, Virginia was among the ARG series of polls in which the Arizona senator held a slim lead, but that was counteracted (and then some) by the Insider Advantage poll in the Old Dominion that showed Obama up by six points there. Combined, the two polls have the effect of drawing Virginia even closer to a dead heat. In fact, Virginia is now the closest state on the Spectrum, surpassing Nevada for that distinction. McCain could lose Nevada to Obama and still tie by picking off Colorado or win by swinging Colorado and New Hampshire. But if he were to lose Virginia, Michigan or Pennsylvania would have to be a part of his electoral math at that point. And for reasons we have already discussed, that is looking less and less likely.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
IN-11
(349/200)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
LA-9
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
AZ-10
(74)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Virginia, then, swaps places with Nevada on the Electoral College Spectrum and now appears to be the most likely Obama pick up of those states in pink. Arizona, too, swaps places with one of its neighbors on the Spectrum, changing spots with Louisiana for the second time in the last three days. Other than that, though, there was no other movement in the rankings. As bad as it seems for McCain, if he is able to hold on to those pinks states -- and that's a pretty big if right now -- he would have only to swing Colorado to pull out a win in the electoral college. Will that happen? I don't know. That's why they play the game. Time is running out, though, as are strategies.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Watch List remains the same as it was a day ago and as we have highlighted over and over again recently, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are still the states to watch most closely. But you have to watch for polls in those states with the understanding that there are now many polls in each state (Nevada potentially excluded). The more polls there are the more difficult it becomes to alter FHQ's weighted average in the state. For instance, Virginia just became the closest state in our rankings tonight. However, it would take a poll showing Obama ahead by 10 to immediately shift the average over to the Illinois senator. And even that is outside of the what we would expect of polls from Virginia in the post-economic crisis period. But three consecutive polls showing Obama up five seems much more realistic and that would be enough to shift the average over to Obama. That, though, is a story for another day. Tomorrow perhaps.

*Ohio was a close runner up here due to the Insider Advantage poll, but since it came out after I had already written much of this, it kind of get short shrift. Plus it more equally counteracts the Survey USA poll out today as well, unlike in the Virginia case.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

Monday, September 29, 2008

The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

To me, today was a slow polling day, especially following both the bailout battle in Congress last week and the first presidential debate last Friday night. But scant polling doesn't mean a lack substantive results. In fact, with a series of Rasmussen polls out this afternoon in five of the toss up states, there were some interesting lessons to take home.

First, who won the debate? Well nationally, polling has continued to rise in Obama's favor since the debates, but does that extend to the state level and, if so, where? Rasmussen has put together a nice little time series of five toss up states (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia) since the conventions and over the last week there have been some notable trends.
  • Colorado has had only two Rasmussen polls over the last eight days, and the trend between those two polls is contrary to most of what is going on in the states below. The Centennial state was at +3 for Obama last week, but that has decreased to just a one point lead in the poll out today.
  • In Florida, McCain had bounced to a 5 point margin -- one outside the margin of error -- in the first poll last week. But as the week wore on that lead dissipated, first shrinking to one point and then disappearing altogether in today's poll.
  • Obama has made up ground in Ohio. The Buckeye state had been somewhat resistant to Obama advances in the post-convention environment, but that has changed ever so slightly. Down four a week ago, Obama has been behind by just one point in each of the before and after debate polls of the state.
  • In Pennsylvania, Obama has tacked on a few points with each poll over the last seven or eight days, moving from +3 to +8 in Rasmussen's recent surveys of the state.
  • Virginia went from +2 McCain to +5 Obama to +3 Obama today.
The conclusion? Obama has gained ground in Pennsylvania and the Keystone state appears to be following the lead of another Obama toss up, Michigan, bu increasingly moving toward Obama. Florida and Ohio are states where Obama has made up ground but continues to trail by the slimmest of margins. Colorado and Virginia, on the other hand, look as if they may have peaked last week -- at least in the Rasmussen polls -- as subtle gains have given way to a slight tightening since.

New Polls (Sept. 29)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
Rasmussen
+1
Florida
Rasmussen
0
Florida
Survey USA
+1
New Jersey
Survey USA
+10
North Carolina
Public Policy Polling
+2
Ohio
Rasmussen
+1
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg
+7
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
+8
Tennessee
Mid. Tenn. St. Univ.
+11
Virginia
Rasmussen
+3

But it is perhaps not wise, though no less fun, to rely too heavily on this one polling firm's surveys. However, the results of those polls in Florida and Pennsylvania were echoed by additional polling in those states today. And North Carolina continues to tighten based on a series of polls that have either shown a tie or a slight Obama lead within the margin of error.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Overall, though, the map holds steady at 273-265 in favor of Obama. I can sense that perhaps people are getting antsy about the map not moving*, especially in light of recent polling. Truth be told, however, any shifts are dependent upon Nevada, Ohio and Virginia at this point. Virginia is tracking toward Obama, but Ohio has levelled off and there continues to be a lack of polling in Nevada given the closeness of the race in the Silver state. Should all three break for Obama on November 4, that would put the Illinois senator at 311 electoral votes. The idea of Obama's ceiling was brought up earlier today and that 311 seems a solid conservative estimate, but as I discussed recently, Obama could conceivably pull out a more serious victory with a sweep of those McCain toss ups. Is that likely? I have no idea. This bailout issue will have play out some more perhaps. The trajectory of the race, though, is toward Obama. And the gap between the trio of pinks states discussed above and the remaining McCain toss ups is enough to separate the category into likely and less likely Obama swings.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
MN-10
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

On the Electoral College Spectrum today, Minnesota moves a spot closer to the toss up/lean line by virtue of New Jersey jumping a spot closer to Obama in the rankings. But that's is the only move on a day when the majority of polls were in toss up states. Now, with the two polls in Pennsylvania showing Obama ahead by upper single digits, the Keystone state has officially joined the Watch List (states most likely to shift in to other categories with the addition of new polling). Like Michigan, Pennsylvania is within a point of moving into the safer Obama lean category. As September closes, then, the list is comprised of nine states that involve the toss up category in some way. Of those nine, six are on the cusp of moving toward Obama. When we talk about the positions each candidate is in, this is a clear indication.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

*If I have time this week, I'll look at some alternate scenarios like I did over the summer when I shifted the earliest poll considered in the data set to the point at which Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Here we are at the outset of VP debate week, and we're once again waiting on state-level polls to start coming out. As I said yesterday, it looks as if the polling firms all took Thursday and/or Friday off to set a baseline for comparison. If there was a polling done over the weekend then that will start coming today and tomorrow. Still, there hasn't been much so far today. Florida is it so far, but I'll get to the Sunshine state and hopefully some others in tonight's update.

New Polls (Sept. 28)
StatePollMargin
Connecticut
Survey USA
+16
Kentucky
Mason-Dixon
+12
Tennessee
Mason-Dixon
+16

What emerged on Sunday was a trio of polls from states that seem pretty set in their ways. Connecticut is a strong Obama state, just as Kentucky and Tennessee are safe states for McCain. The Survey USA poll of Connecticut is certainly in line with FHQ's weighted average of the state's polls. In Kentucky and Tennessee, though, both results come in under their respective averages. The Mason-Dixon survey of the Bluegrass state, for instance, is about seven points under while Tennessee is only a few points under where the average would place the Volunteer state. The latter is within margin of error though. Kentucky is not. As Nate Silver indicated yesterday, that may bode well for Obama across the border in Ohio. What may have been a complete beating in the southern part of the state may only be a beating now. However, if turnout is solid in the areas of the state that favor Obama on paper, then a smaller margin in a traditionally poor area for Democrats may come in handy.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Regardless, none of the three results fundamentally [Yes, the overuse of this word has officially begun in the context of this race.] changes the map. Each was a strong state for their respective candidates before and each remains in the safe range after. The point to take away is that after two subpar weeks for McCain, there is some shuffling among some of those red states. They may not be slipping into a danger zone for the Arizona senator, but there has been some drop in Kentucky and Tennessee. Let me add that this is the first time Mason-Dixon has surveyed either this cycle, so we lack a true comparison here between these polls and previous polls from the same firm. We don't have a before and after comparison like that in the Muhlenberg tracking poll of Pennsylvania that shows a 3 point gain for Obama after the debate. But like Florida, I'll get to that one in tonight's update.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
NJ-15
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

On the Electoral College Spectrum, there isn't too much change. Neighbors on the map, Kentucky and Tennessee are neighbors in these rankings as well. Each holds its position here though. Connecticut switches places with Delaware, becoming slightly safer to Obama than the First state. In the black and white world of presidential election politics, that really doesn't mean much. Neither state is going anywhere come November 4.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Finally, the Watch List doesn't budge and why should it based on three polls from overwhelmingly safe states. Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain the states to watch the closest, but there are still a host of other states that are close to moving into or from the toss up distinction.


Recent Posts:
Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

"I was a little disappointed the media called it a tie, but I think that means when they call it a tie that means we win."
--John McCain

I may be a little late on this, but I thought I'd gauge the perceptions out there on this quotation. If you assume that a runner is an underdog and/or someone having to play offense, is that a win for the Arizona senator?

Here's what we know:
1) Last week was bad for McCain.
Effect: potentially lowered expectations

2) Foreign policy is supposed to be McCain's area.
Effect: Expectations were relatively high.

3) McCain played the experience/understanding card all night, but Obama was able to counter that by simply holding his own on the debate stage.
Effect: Well, that's where the tie comes in.


So, does McCain win in a draw scenario? More importantly, what happens if the McCain-Obama debates continue to be draws? That last one may or may not be obvious, but feel free to discuss while I update the electoral college map to reflect the changes brought about by yesterday's handful of polls.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

There seems to have been a polling cease fire among all the polling firms that began for the most part on Thursday and continued into and through Friday. Yeah, there was a debate coming but we're paying for it over this weekend. There are only two polls out today and in both cases each is in line with the weighted average FHQ has. And that's a real recipe for change on a site where the methodology is resistant to sudden change.

New Polls (Sept. 27)
StatePollMargin
Iowa
Rasmussen
+8
Louisiana
Rasmussen
+15

But there's one state for each candidate there. Obama maintains a heavy lean in Iowa. With the line here between the strong category and the lean category now at a nine point margin, Iowa is on the verge of joining the Watch List. [It is within a tenth of a point of moving up.] And for a state that some considered a toss up heading into the contest -- a number that is dwindling significantly over time, yet still has some among its ranks -- it just doesn't look like Hawkeye state is going to be all that close in 2008. For McCain, Louisiana remains a safe state. There have been blips of upper single digit margins along the way, but the Pelican state has never seemed to have been in doubt.


[Click Map to Enlarge]

Needless to say the map remains unchanged with the addition of the two new Rasmussen polls. Obama remains ahead 273-265 and given the way some of the daily tracker are going these days, that seems a bit too close perhaps. This, however, is still a race that is comprised of 50 different elections. If the state polls start to move in a direction similar to what we are witnessing in most of the national polls, then those pink states all of a sudden look pretty good for Obama again.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Nevada and Ohio were the most recent states to move in to the pink and are, with Virginia, the most likely to shift back into Obama territory. But the preceptions of the race have certainly changed since the period immediately following the conventions. Instead of talking about how far McCain may push into Obama territory, we're back to where we were in the time before the conventions talking about Obama swing some of those pink states. Florida and North Carolina (though the latter is a lean state) have closed considerably in recent polling. If Ohio and Florida, much lesss North Carolina, are states McCain is having to defend with all he's got, then the Arizona senator is in real trouble coming down the stretch in this race.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Some of our loyal readers already think he is. And you have to admit that the paths to electoral college victory are limited in number at this point for McCain. Some of these battleground states are close enough now that the electoral college is close too. But how will state-level polls begin interpreting the events of Friday night? That will be the big question moving forward.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Saturday, September 27, 2008

The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Another day, another 10 state polls. But it wasn't just any regular ol' day. The first presidential debate, like convention season, offered the potential for a shift in polling in this race. Over the next couple of weeks we'll see if and and how much change occurs. If last night is any indication of what's in store, then it likely won't be much. However, what we have in the beginning debate season in the 2008 presidential campaign is a natural break, from pre-debate to during debate. FHQ is taking advantage of that line of demarcation to make some slight changes to how we are describing the race.

For starters, we are shifting our lines between categories. So, the point at which a toss up becomes a lean state is now a margin of four points in our weighted average. That one point point drop is mirrored by an equivalent move the next category up. A strong state is now defined as any state where the weighted average is more than nine points.

FHQ will also take this opportunity to remove the ever-popular Zogby Interactive polls from our data set and to make a change from taking polls based on registered voters to those with likely voters. That latter decision has pretty much been made for us, as most of the polling firms -- and the outlets disseminating their survey results -- have made the switch already.

But back to the polls...

New Polls (Sept. 26)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
ARG
+3
Florida
Rasmussen
+1
Florida
ARG
+1
Missouri
Research 2000/St. Louis Dispatch
+1
Montana
Research 2000/Daily Kos
+13
New Hampshire
Suffolk
+1
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg
+4
South Carolina
Research 2000/Daily Kos
+15
Virginia
Rasmussen
+5
Wyoming
Research 2000/Daily Kos
+21

After a couple of days chock full of Obama-favorable polls, things came back a bit for McCain on Friday. Now, some of the Obama's advantage on Wednesday and Thursday was that the polling released was coming from a host of already blue states. McCain got some polls from some of his states on Friday. South Carolina and Wyoming are safe for the Arizona senator and door seems to have been closed on Obama in Montana. The Treasure state had showed Obama ahead in July, but that edge has dissipated with the GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee. On the Obama end of things, Rasmussen shows the Illinois senator ahead in Virginia. That is the third such poll for Obama in Virginia to give him an edge outside of the margin of error. And as a result, the Old Dominion is creeping back toward a tie both in our average and in relation to the margin of error.

The real mark of this set of polls is how close the other six are. And four of those polls are within a point, in either direction. There's a split decision in the two polls out of Florida, Missouri continues to narrow and the third one point margin in a week has been released from New Hampshire.

Changes (Sept. 26)
StateBeforeAfter
North Carolina*
Toss Up McCain
McCain lean
Washington*
Obama lean
Strong Obama
*Change brought about by shifting of the lean/strong and toss up/lean lines, not new polling.

But none of these new polls move any of the nine states into an alternate category. However, shifting the lines between the categories brought about a couple of changes. North Carolina now becomes a McCain lean just a day after it looked like the Tar Heel state might threaten to stay in toss up territory. Much of that is based on the removal of a trio of favorable polls from Zogby. North Carolina does stay within range of changing back, however, and the way polling in the Tar Heel state has gone over the last week, that is a distinct possibility. Also, Washington moves further into Obama's column, becoming a strong state again for the Illinois senator. The Evergreen state, like North Carolina, is still within the range, though, of switching back. The recent polling in the northwest has been a bit more muddled. Tighter, yes, but still favoring Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So a couple of midrange electoral vote states move into more comforable positions for their respective candidates. Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia get some company in that McCain lean category from North Carolina and Washington rejoins the group of strong Obama states. But neither move changes the distribution of electoral votes between McCain and Obama. The Illinois senator maintains the same eight electoral vote advantage he has held for the couple of weeks or so.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
LA-9
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
AZ-10
(74)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

What dropping the Zogby polls does do is shake up the Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List to some extent. Virginia jumps Ohio and North Carolina moves into the lean category, but other than those changes the toss ups states continue to be in the same positions. There are other subtle changes to the Spectrum, but Minnesota is the most notable one. The North Star state again moves closer to the toss up category based on a series a narrower and narrower polls in the state recently.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

But Minnesota is not in a position that an imminent change is upon us. What is striking about the states that are now on the Watch List is that other than Oregon and Washington, we are dealing with a series of states that are on the verge of either moving into or out of the toss up category. With the toss up/lean line now at four, there is a lot more potential for some action. However, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain the only three states anywhere close to crossing the partisan line into Obama's side. The point from the candidates' perspective, though, is that these toss up states are the ones that could easily shift as a group to one side or the other based on the momentum heading down the stretch. When John Zogby (Yes, that John Zogby.) spoke about the potential for a landslide increasing in the context of the current economic turmoil, this is how it would likely play out. As the Spectrum indicates, if one candidates captured the momentum heading into election day and was able to completely sweep the toss up states, that would net McCain 316 electoral votes and Obama 360 electoral votes. And given how close the last two presidential elections have been, both would likely be interpreted as landslides. Now, whether that happens, we'll see over the next five plus weeks.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Nothing to see here, folks.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

10:39pm: Alright, I'm retreating to the Electoral College lair to think about this one for a while.

10:37pm: And there's the handshake. That's a wrap.

10:34pm: McCain: Obama's stubbornness on the surge is akin to the Bush administration on other issues. I'm surprised that "he doesn't get it" hasn't made an appearance tonight...from either side.

10:33pm: Obama: Economic crisis is a national security issue.

10:32pm: Ooh, extra time.

10:31pm: I've been thinking about calling this a forgettable debate, but the Obama doesn't understand stuff proves that if you say something enough...

10:27pm: I'm not sure about this "reaching across the aisle" stuff from McCain. Have the last few days taught us nothing? What will he be able to reach across the aisle to do if he's elected?

10:25pm: Last question. Let's put it this way: There won't be a lot of back and forth on this one.

10:22pm: Obama from Russian oil fueling their government to alternative energy here in the US.

10:18pm: McCain continues to play the experience card. Now on Russia. Again, "I've been there," on Georgia.

10:12pm: "I'm not going to set the White House schedule. I don't even have a seal yet." Good one.

10:09pm: Is Obama's ability to pronounce these foreign names a good thing or a bad thing?
Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. It is an interesting contrast between the two candidates, especially after McCain's issues getting Ahmadinejad out. How does that play into the Obama is a Muslim narrative.

10:08pm: Sitting down with leaders without pre-conditions. There's a blast from the past.

10:03pm: On to Iran.

10:00pm: Ugh, if you are going to add a personal story, you better know the name. McCain nailed his. Sure, it was the same one he's brought up in his acceptance speech, but still. Obama did not.

9:57pm: I think this not understanding thing has been talked about within the McCain campaign. Now on Pakistan, pre-Musharraf.

9:54pm: More on Obama not understanding from McCain. This time on Waziristan and Al Qeada.

9:45pm: McCain: "Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy." That one could bring some fireworks along the way.

9:40pm: McCain's on firmer ground on the surge.

9:38pm:
On Guantanamo Bay? Mr. McCain, John Kerry is on the phone. He was against torture, before he was against for it.

9:34pm: Jim Lehrer is winning this debate so far. He's by far the most animated.

...trying to get either candidate to answer a question on scaled back spending in the face of the current economic climate.

9:33pm: "Using a hatchet where a scalpel is needed." A good line from Obama on a government spending freeze.

9:29pm: Ah, there's the first "most liberal senator" mention.

9:26pm: They've both warmed to this format now.

9:21pm:
A lot of hand-raising from Obama on these McCain points on earmarks. Not Horshack-style hand-raising, but there's a pattern here on these split screens.

9:16 pm: Ooh, there's the first split screen (...on NBC). No sighing, no eye-rolling, just McCain writing at the moment.

9:13pm:
Jim Lehrer is trying to turn this into a town hall meeting-lite. This is kind of weird. But the difference from four years ago is stark.

9:08pm:
Shredding regulations. We may be hearing that lot from Obama. That's twice.

8:41pm:
We are about fifteen minutes from go-time everyone. Elton John would have us believe that Saturday night's alright for fighting. We'll Friday night is fine by me, actually. And given the events of this week, we could see a real good one tonight.

First a quick review:
1) First debates are the most watched debates of any cycle.

2) Sit down debates are typically boring, highlighted by muted body language. Think Cheney-Lieberman. Well, that's an exaggeration.
Those look like podiums. I stand corrected.

3) If we can, let's try to get a variety to mediums represented here. Someone on C-SPAN, someone on the one of the major networks, someone online, etc. The first debate in 2004 had some different feeds floating around. C-SPAN had the non-speaking candidate's reactions at times, while most of the networks kept the camera trained on the speaker. The result was that people took away different impressions of the debate. Let's try to keep tabs on that tonight. I think I'm going to be on C-SPAN.

So we should have a lot of bored people watching tonight. I won't be one of them. So, turn on the set, open up a comment box and off we go.


Recent Posts:
Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Nothing to see here, folks.

The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)